Sunday, August 29, 2010

Contradictions

So this morning, we still don't have a clue what's going on. The National Hurricane Center reports (they're easier to read on CrownWeather) don't exactly add up.

The DISCUSSION says that THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING TURNING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THIS WEAKNESS IN 2 OR 3 DAYS...

The latest PUBLIC ADVISORY (written at the same time as the DISCUSSION) says: THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

According to my math, that means that it'll hit us BEFORE it turns northerly.

Add the fact that Earl is expected to become a hurricane later today, which means winds above 74mph, and the fact that they've issued Hurricane Warnings to all the islands, and I'd say we should expect some wind. Again, let's do the math...Tropical Force Winds (from 39mph to 73mph) are now extending 160 miles from the storm. According to StormCarib, the storm will now be coming within 68 miles of us. Therefore, one would think that our least-worst guaranteed scenario would be 39 mph winds. And yet, the Wind Probabilities still show us with only a 58% chance of 34 mph winds. Does this make sense??????

Here's what it's doing right now...I'm pretty sure we just might see some action.



Rain predictions are from 3-5", 8" in some areas and seas are officially up (going to 12'). The storm surge (up 1-3') is going to cause "DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES." Guess we won't go swimming in Sandy Bank today then...

So...We've done pretty much what we're going to do (we'll wait til the last minute to bring the shutters in), although now Michael has to go to work and batten down their hatches.

So who knows what's to come. Right now we just have clouds. Let's hope that "ridge" that's supposed to keep turning these storms to the north redevelops - we need our invisible force field back.



If you're vacationing here in the next month, welcome to hurricane season in the islands!

Earl - 370 miles away...