Saturday, August 28, 2010

Creeping Closer

There are now tropical storm watches (better than a warning) for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, ST. KITTS!, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Maarten, Saba, and Statia. St. Martin (about 60 miles NW of us) has been modifying their drawbridge openings/closings and warning boats to get into the lagoon. Michael said the seas on the north side of the island were really high yesterday. If it'll come out on camera, I'll take some pictures. It's as calm as a pond on the sea side.

As of this writing the winds are at 60mph with winds extending out 85 miles. Should be a hurricane by tonight. Because the models are still predicting a northerly turn (they just don't agree when), the wind predictions for St. Kitts are still at just a 35% probability of 34mph (which we'd welcome - it's hot!). So far, we're still at the edge of the wind cone. According to my favorite StormCarib tool, the closest the storm will get is 138 miles from us and that'll be Monday morning (which means it'll hit Sunday night - it's always at night...). Hope everybody's right.


The storm behind Earl seems to be following the exact same trajectory so I guess Earl will be our test run.

I think we can all be really thankful that Hurricane Danielle avoided everyone, because she got up to a Cat 4. Of course, some idiots will try to surf her waves off the US coast and kill themselves...

A quick aside here about personal safety on St. Kitts: If the storm creeps any closer (and if any future storms threaten), we will fuel the car and take some money out of the bank. This is necessary in case the ATM machines go down for awhile, but perfect for criminals. Just like anywhere, there are scavengers waiting to take advantage of any situation that suits their needs (like darkness and mayhem). Add a ragtag police force (very underpaid and unlikely to put themselves at risk) and it's everyone for themselves. If anyone watched the atrocities that happened during Hurricane Katrina (and that happened in the "greatest" country on earth; certainly one of the richest), then they'll know it's just the way it is, so we'll be prepared.

So Earl...800miles away and counting down...