Thursday, September 16, 2010

Igor

I haven't talked too much about Igor, Julia, or any other storm lately because the forecasting (from humans to computers) hasn't been doing all that well this season, making nothing worth commenting on until the storms actually get nearby and do or don't affect us.

Earl went much further south initially and then confounded everyone along the North American coast. Karl was sort of a surprise and Julia definitely was. One day everyone was predicting Julia to snuff herself out, the next thing you knew she was a Cat 4 (she actually set a record).

Moving at a meandering 7mph since his existence, Igor was definitely not worth discussing until now. Too many people are too eager to scream Chicken Little-like while a storm is still developing thousands of miles away. Models are truly guessing at that stage, what's the point in getting all worked up? In this case, a storm moving at such a slow pace has so many variables that could come into play, that until its nearer, it's just not worth obsessing about. Watch? Yes. Panic? Maybe not. Hurricanes do mysterious things...

I think Igor has tracked pretty close to what was predicted, but it's strength going forward is in question (could be more; could be less - but it will remain dangerous) and, unfortunately for Bermuda, it's exact movements can't be known either. They're definitely going to feel something, so I hope everyone is preparing there.

I've been using the How Close Can it Get tool in Stormcarib since yesterday morning and every time a new NHC advisory comes out, the storm is predicted to come a few miles closer to us (but still a good distance away - over 350mi). Here's where it was at 5 this morning.



There's no question the worst of Igor is already ENE of us, but it will be interesting to see if we don't get some weather from the storm. We did get poured on heavily last night from 11pm to about 1:30am and the radar this morning shows some more moisture around. I really must comment again how sloooooooow this storm is moving. I couldn't sleep through the rain and got up to check the radar to see what was going on. At that time Mr. Igor was 450mi from the Leeward islands (our area). That was 1:30am (but the report was from 11pm). This morning at 5:30am? It's 440mi from us. It's gone 10 miles in 6 1/2 hours? zzzzzzzzzzzzz We sailed faster than that! It's actually not supposed to get to its closest point until early Friday morning and I believe it.

Last night, hurricane force winds only spread out to about 45mi, with tropical force winds extending out 240 (neither of which would reach us). This morning, hurricane force winds are out to 70miles with TF winds to 270 (we're still safe). This, of course, stinks for Bermuda as it makes it necessary for the storm to swerve that much more to miss them. They have a few more days to bite their nails and see what happens.

So seas are supposed to be up (they weren't yesterday) and we'll see if we get any action from any lingering moisture as it passes NE of us. Whewy - these storms have been nasty. I'm sure glad that most of the planet is ocean, allowing these things to just wander aimlessly and leave us all alone. Well, most of the time...

Today's a holiday - National Heroes Day - so let's hope the memorial events don't get rained out. Bring your umbrellas!