5pm UPDATE: OK, here's a quickie. TS Maria has sped up a little to 16 mph (yay), but is now coming right over us (boo). Winds might be 60mph then (per Storm Pulse). Most other websites, including NHC, have the winds much lower, at more like 33-39mph, so let's hope they're right. Times differ, but it'll be at its closest point later for some reason too - 2pm per Storm Pulse/5pm per Storm Carib. Obviously, we'll be feeling the effects before then. It's still really nice out although it still looks like a small band of rain is coming our way soon.
2pm UPDATE: Not much change, although the NHC says "ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM [201 miles] ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM [258 miles] ON DAY 5." That's quite the spread! I don't see how it can go north of the Leewards at this point unless it continues to slow down (which would be baaad). Most of the models now agree. Of course, they can always shift and agree to that too...
The storm has slowed to 14mph. It needs to stop doing that. The south seas are getting a bit white cappy, but it's still pretty out (a little misty, but nice enough). The next NHC update is at 5pm and we should be getting some rain from the rain bands extended in front of the main event by then. I won't be updating though, because I'll be at happy hour (I made brownies!). If anything changes with the 8pm NOAA update, I'll do one last post for the day.
7am: I do weather "correspond" for Storm Carib, but have discovered a # of you readers reading the blog for weather info too, so figured since TS Maria is just about upon us, I'd get a bit more detailed. Just remember, I'm not a meteorologist. I know how to look at a lot of websites and digest the info thanks to 3 years on a sailboat when understanding the weather was a big deal. Take what I say with a grain of salt (what does that mean anyway??). It seems after some final foot placement, the worst of TS Maria is actually going to go slightly south of us. The storm got rather large overnight, but the "ugly" areas (grey/black) on the satellite are more likely to hit Dominica or Guadeloupe. You can see how the satellite pic correlates to the current radar (green is rain). St. Lucia and St. Vincent & The Grenadines are getting some rain this morning.
The forecasted "path" is having it clip us to the south and give us winds of 45 mph at that time (gusts higher). She's still flying along at 18mph, so hopefully won't overstay her welcome.
The closest point tool from StormCarib puts TS Maria about 20 miles south of here early Saturday afternoon. We should be getting some weather from her starting this afternoon, with the worst of it affecting us on Saturday. According to Accuweather, the rain won't taper off until Sunday afternoon. If that's true, flooding is going to be a problem (predicted 3-5"). Swells are going to be from 6 to 15' through Sunday - that's quite a range (we're north of 15 Lat and east of 65 Lon for you storm watchers). Winds are supposed to be in the 20s today and I can't say I'm complaining about it. All the windows are doors are open already. Aaaaah, relief.