The hurricane monitoring site StormCarib.com gave two possibilities for the storm last week and fortunately the storm ended up choosing the more benign of the two. I followed Dorian since early last week when it was just off the African coast and still wasn't a storm yet.
I knew nothing about hurricanes before moving here to St. Kitts but quickly learned a lot quickly as we arrived to Tropical Storm Isaac, before it was a hurricane, followed by a much worse Tropical Storm Raphael just a little over a month later.
(Feel free to read about last year's Tropical Storm Raphael here: http://islandbabble.blogspot.com/2012/10/tropical-storm-rafael-part-1a.html)
My wife Julie made fun of me last week as I showed her the swirling Dorian just off the African coast. "It's clean over by Africa," she said. I explained that even though it's far away it's always a good idea to prepare because we can. Fortunately we don't live in Oklahoma where a tornado can suddenly swoop down out of the sky and cause deadly havoc. We get a warning, and sometimes that's tough since it makes a person anxious waiting.
|Dorian in his beginning stages last week. Courtesy:www.jamaicaobserver.com|
Dorian looked like a decent size storm but according to experts it's forward speed of around 25 mph was too fast for it to pick up the moist air it needed to become stronger and more organized. When you combine that with the fact that the air in front of it was very dry, it spelled doom for the fourth storm of the season.
Dorian is now just north of St. Kitts, and as I look outside I can say it has had no visible effect on our weather. No rain, no wind, and certainly no storm. It looks like any other typical Basseterre night.
|Tropical Wave Dorian's Current position. Courtesy: www.StormCarib.com|
Some weather experts say Dorian may pick up some more energy in the warmer waters closer to Florida, but I think it's as StormCarib's writer stated— a Dud.
As my wife said to me today, "Don't worry there will be plenty more chances this year for storms to follow." I'm certain she's right.